What Is Arbitrage Betting?
Arbitrage betting, sometimes called surebetting, involves placing bets on different outcomes with different bookmakers when the available odds create a theoretical positive return.
The opportunity exists when the combined implied probabilities of the available outcomes are below 100%.
How to Calculate an Arbitrage Opportunity
For a simple two-outcome market using decimal odds, calculate the implied probability of each outcome and add the results together.
Arbitrage percentage = (1 ÷ Odds 1) + (1 ÷ Odds 2)
If the result is below 1, the market may contain a theoretical arbitrage opportunity.
For markets with three or more outcomes, such as a football match with home, draw and away results, the implied probabilities of all covered outcomes must be included.
Arbitrage Betting Example
Imagine two bookmakers offer different prices for the outcomes of a two-way market:
The implied probability is approximately 47.62% for each outcome, giving a combined probability of approximately 95.24%. That is below 100%, which indicates a theoretical arbitrage opportunity.
Arbitrage Betting Risks
An arbitrage calculation is mathematical and does not guarantee that the opportunity can be executed exactly as calculated.
- Odds can change before both bets are placed.
- Bookmakers can limit available stakes.
- A market or bet can potentially be suspended or voided.
- Different bookmakers may have different settlement rules.
- Account restrictions can affect whether the required stakes are accepted.
Arbitrage Betting Calculator FAQ
What is a surebet?
A surebet is a common term for an arbitrage opportunity where the calculated stakes theoretically produce a positive return regardless of the covered outcome.
How do I find an arbitrage opportunity?
Compare prices for the same market across different bookmakers and calculate the combined implied probability.
Is arbitrage betting guaranteed?
The calculation can indicate a theoretical guaranteed return, but changing odds, stake limits, voids and bookmaker rules can affect real-world execution.
Can I use arbitrage betting on football?
Yes. Football markets can contain different prices across bookmakers, although opportunities can disappear quickly as odds change.